The Liberal Party has secured a fourth term—this time under new leader Mark Carney—and while it’s another minority government, the implications for the mortgage and housing markets are meaningful. From tax reform to housing incentives, there’s plenty for mortgage professionals and borrowers to watch closely.

1. GST Removed for First-Time Buyers on New Homes Under $1M

One of the most tangible impacts for new buyers: the removal of GST on new homes priced under $1 million for first-time buyers. This could save buyers up to $50,000 on a $950,000 home, significantly improving affordability in high-priced markets of Ontario.

Mortgage Implication: Expect a surge in demand for new builds under the $1M threshold, especially from first-time buyers. Get pre-approved early in your home-buying journey.

2. $25B in Housing Investment = More Inventory (Eventually)

The Liberals plan to inject over $25 billion in affordable housing development, including partnerships with private and non-profit developers.

Mortgage Implication: While this won’t ease supply constraints overnight, it signals more long-term inventory, which could gradually cool home price growth and improve housing choice for buyers locked out of today’s tight market.

3. Fiscal Stimulus May Delay or Moderate Rate Cuts

The proposed $77 billion in new fiscal spending (equal to 2.5% of GDP) includes infrastructure and tax cuts. While supportive of the economy, it may slow the Bank of Canada’s pace of rate cuts by adding inflationary pressure.

Mortgage Implication: Be prepared for continued rate volatility. Rate holds and pre-approvals are a strategic move heading into renewals or purchases.

4. Tax Changes Could Boost Investor Activity

The Liberals plan to cut the lowest personal income tax bracket by 1% and roll back capital gains inclusion increases—potentially benefitting investors, especially those holding real estate portfolios.

Mortgage Implication: Expect renewed interest in rental and investment property financing. This may create competitive situations as seasoned investors and new entrants are attracted by tax efficiency.

5. Mild Recession Still Possible—But Shorter

While stimulus may soften the blow, economists still predict a mild recession, with rising deficits and debt levels. That said, housing-related spending could buffer job losses in construction and real estate.

Mortgage Implication: Now is a good time to look at refinancing, debt consolidation, and switching lenders to improve cash flow. A proactive strategy could help weather short-term economic uncertainty.

Final Takeaways

This Liberal win comes with a new fiscal playbook: big spending, targeted housing relief, and moderate tax cuts. For the mortgage market, this means more opportunities—especially for first-time buyers and investors—but also a continued need for strategic advice in a still-uncertain rate environment.

Reach out if you have any questions, or want to review your situation together.

As we navigate the spring market, one thing remains clear: now is the time to put a proactive mortgage strategy in place. Whether you're approaching renewal, considering a new home purchase, or thinking about leveraging your home's equity, being prepared ensures you're ready to act—no matter what the future holds.

Why Timing Matters

Interest rates are on pause—for now. After a series of rate cuts beginning last June, the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.75% earlier this month. While some economists anticipate the possibility of further decreases later this year, much depends on how the broader economy evolves. In the meantime, today's stable rates present an opportunity to explore your options—whether that means securing a better deal on a new mortgage or refinancing your current mortgage.

At the same time, housing affordability and access to homeownership are major themes in the platforms of both the Liberal and Conservative parties. No matter who forms the next government, there will likely be policy changes that affect the housing market. However, those changes won't be immediate. Legislation and programs take time to design, pass, and implement. That's why preparing now makes sense—you'll be positioned to take advantage of today's conditions and ready to adapt when changes do come.

A quieter market could be an opportunity.

The spring market has been slower than usual, with many buyers and sellers waiting for clearer signals before making a move. This subdued environment can actually work to your benefit. With fewer buyers competing for homes, you may find better opportunities to negotiate or even secure a home at a better price.

What you can do right now

1. If your mortgage is renewing within the next 12 months be proactive! You don't have to wait for your lender's renewal letter and you don't have to accept their offer without considering your options first. It's always a good idea to shop around – and renewal is a great time to re-evaluate your situation so you can make any changes if necessary. By starting the renewal process early, not only do you give yourself time to secure a better deal, potentially saving thousands of dollars in the long term, you can lock in a favourable rate and avoid unpleasant surprises.
2. If you're considering a home purchase get pre-approved now to understand your buying power. Pre-approval helps you act quickly when the right property or rate becomes available. It also helps you focus your home search within your budget, saving time and stress. If the market shifts, having pre-approval in place makes it easier to act decisively.
3. If you're thinking about accessing your home equity this is an excellent time, with home values in many areas remaining strong. Whether you want to consolidate high-interest debt, fund home improvements, or build financial flexibility for the future, refinancing now can give you more options as market conditions remain steady. Don't wait for potential changes in rates or policy—take advantage of the current window of opportunity.

Even if you're not planning any immediate moves, it's always helpful to check in with your mortgage professional. With changes potentially on the horizon, staying informed will ensure that you're prepared for whatever comes next. Whether you're renewing your mortgage, buying a new home, or tapping into your equity, I'm here to help you build a strategy that aligns with both your short- and long-term goals.

Let's connect today and get you on track for what's to come. Call or email me anytime—I'm here to help!

Being self-employed offers flexibility and independence but can also make securing a mortgage a bit more complex. With sometimes inconsistent income and fewer traditional employment records, many business owners find it challenging to meet conventional mortgage requirements. But don’t worry—there are proven strategies to help you navigate the process.

1. Get Organized Early Lenders need to see proof of income and stability. Gather at least two years’ worth of financial statements, Notices of Assessment, and bank records. Having these documents on hand shows you’re prepared and demonstrates financial reliability.

2. Work with a Mortgage Broker A mortgage broker experienced with self-employed clients can guide you to lenders who specialize in non-traditional income scenarios. They can also explain which lenders will accept your full income, including retained earnings and one-time contracts.

3. Consider Stated Income Mortgages If your income is hard to document, some lenders offer stated income mortgages or bank statement mortgages. These loans also consider your credit history and assets instead of relying solely on tax returns. While rates may be slightly higher, these loans can bridge the gap if traditional underwriting methods don’t reflect your earning power.

4. Build a Strong Credit Profile A high credit score and clean credit history make you more appealing to lenders. Pay down high-interest debts, maintain consistent credit card payments, and avoid taking on new debt during the mortgage application process.

5. Increase Your Down Payment The more you can put down, the less risk the lender assumes. If you’re self-employed, offering a larger down payment can make lenders more willing to approve your mortgage application.

Being your own boss shouldn’t keep you from owning your dream home. By staying organized, working with the right experts, and exploring alternative mortgage products, you can successfully navigate the lending landscape and secure a mortgage that fits your needs.