Darryl Kraemer's Mortgage Blog | Expert Advice for Ontario Homebuyers - Invis
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Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady — What It Means for Your Mortgage

Darryl Kraemer
April 29, 2026

This morning, the Bank of Canada announced it is keeping its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25% — the fourth consecutive hold since the Bank paused its rate-cutting cycle in December 2025.


For variable-rate mortgage holders and those with a home equity line of credit (HELOC), this means your rate stays exactly where it is. No relief, but no increases either.


Why the hold?


The Bank cut interest rates four times in 2025, bringing its benchmark rate down by a full percentage point. Since December, it has maintained a wait-and-see approach as the ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to stoke inflationary concerns and uncertainty around the Canadian economy.


Oil price shocks caused by the Iran conflict pushed headline inflation higher in March, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 2.4% year over year.


However, core inflation — the measure the Bank watches most closely — has remained more encouraging. Governor Tiff Macklem already signalled that policymakers would "look through" the initial price increase from the oil shock, provided inflation expectations stayed anchored.


This decision surprised nobody. In a poll of mortgage industry professionals, 85% expected no change, while just 13% forecast a cut.


What's next?


Opinions are split on the Bank's next move. Experts are divided on whether the Bank's next move will be a hike or a cut. Financial markets have priced in a possible late-year hike, but most economists argue only a sustained surge in energy-driven inflation would justify tighter policy.


More than 80% of the economists surveyed in a recent Reuters poll forecast no move at all in 2026. TD's Derek Burleton went further, telling attendees at last week's CMBA-ON annual conference that he views rate cuts as more likely than hikes in the months ahead.


The Bank of Canada's next announcement is scheduled for June 10. Much will depend on how the situation in the Middle East develops and whether a lasting resolution eases pressure on global energy markets.


What this means for you


If you're on a variable rate, your payments aren't changing today. If you're renewing or purchasing soon, the uncertainty in the outlook — with both cuts and hikes still on the table — is a real factor in your rate strategy.


The honest advice right now: don't anchor your mortgage decisions to any single Bank of Canada announcement. Focus on your personal financial position, your renewal timeline, and which rate structure offers the most predictability.


That's exactly the conversation I'm here to help you have.